Economic expert, Salwindi Notulu has indicated that […]

Economic expert, Salwindi Notulu has indicated that Zambia is likely to face a period of economic uncertainty after the August 2026 General Election regardless of whether President Hakainde Hichilema or opposition front runner Brian Mundubile emerges victorious.

According to official government data, annual inflation for July 2026 is at 6.5%, meanwhile, the Kwacha continues trading at around K18.65 to K18.79 per US Dollar.

Speaking in an interview with Zambian Business Times (ZBT), Notulu said election periods naturally create uncertainty because investors and businesses wait to see what policies the next government will implement.

“There are speculative investors and even individuals who prefer to hold higher levels of liquidity during elections because they don’t know what direction the economy will take after the polls,” he said.

Notulu added that this often triggers increased demand for foreign currency as both local and foreign investors seek safety.

“People would rather hold foreign currency than local currency because if circumstances change they are able to move or make decisions more easily,” he said.

Meanwhile, Notulu said uncertainty would remain even if the ruling party retained power because campaign-period policies may not be sustainable in the long term.

“If the opposition wins, we don’t know the exact economic policies they will implement, and if the current government wins, there is also uncertainty because they may change some policies after receiving a fresh mandate,” he said.

Notulu cited the current stable electricity supply as one example, arguing that government interventions before the elections could have long-term financial implications.

“We have electricity now and one logical explanation is that we are importing power, but importing power requires dollars, so after the elections there will still be decisions to make on how those costs are managed,” he said.

The economist further warned that temporary measures such as keeping fuel prices low may also come under pressure once the elections are over, increasing the risk of higher inflation.

“If fuel prices rise after the elections, that will trigger cost-push inflation because higher transport and production costs eventually push up the prices of goods on the market,” said Notulu.

He added that while Zambia has maintained relatively stable inflation and exchange rate conditions ahead of the elections, both a new administration and a returning government will still have to navigate difficult economic decisions.

“It is a double-edged sword because whichever side wins, there will be uncertainty over the policy direction once we cross that bridge,” said Notulu.

Article by Philip Sinkala