UPND TARGET FOR 5 MILLION VOTES: It’s Statiscally Impossible But An Attempt Unrealistically Prepare People For Rigging

UPND TARGET FOR 5 MILLION VOTES: It’s Statiscally Impossible But An Attempt Unrealistically Prepare People For Rigging The ruling United Party for National Development’s (UPND) much publicised goal of securing 5 million votes in the upcoming election is mathematically flawed, statistically impossible under normal conditions, and represents an attempt to mislead the electorate. An analysis […]

UPND TARGET FOR 5 MILLION VOTES: It’s Statiscally Impossible But An Attempt Unrealistically Prepare People For Rigging

The ruling United Party for National Development’s (UPND) much publicised goal of securing 5 million votes in the upcoming election is mathematically flawed, statistically impossible under normal conditions, and represents an attempt to mislead the electorate.

An analysis of official voter registration data demonstrates that a 5-million-vote victory for President Hakainde Hichilema cannot occur in a free, fair, and credible election.

Muhabi Lungu, NRPUP presidential campaign committee chairperson for Lusaka Province breaks Hakainde Hichilema’s assertion that he will get five million votes….

WHY 5 MILLION VOTES IS A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY

1. Total Registered Voters vs. Turnout Realities

According to the official Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) voter register, the total number of registered voters is 8,786,300. Even if National Voter Turnout reaches a historic peak of 71%—higher than any Zambian election since 1991—the total votes cast would only be approximately 6,219,813.

2. Valid Votes Cast

Factoring in standard historical rates for rejected and spoiled ballots (approximately 2.5%), the total valid votes cast across the entire country would sit at roughly 6,064,318.

3. An Unprecedented 82.45% Share of the Vote

For the UPND to achieve its target of 5 million votes out of 6,064,318 valid ballots, President Hichilema would need to win 82.45% of the total national vote.

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS & STATISTICAL ANOMALIES

An 82.45% national victory margin is without precedent in modern Zambian multi-party history:

Exceeds Historic Landslides: This percentage is significantly higher than Frederick Chiluba’s landslide victory in 1991 (74%), which occurred when the MMD carried 8 out of 9 provinces amidst sweeping demand for democratic change.

• Unrealistic 25% Surge: Winning 82.45% would require the UPND to increase its support by 25 percentage points over its 2021 performance (57%), despite severe socio-economic challenges currently impacting the electorate.

CONCLUSION: A PIPE DREAM OR PREPARATION FOR MANIPULATION

Claiming a target of 5 million votes before a ballot is even cast, is either a political pipe dream designed to mislead party supporters, or a narrative built to condition public expectations for an engineered result.

We urge the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ), domestic monitors, and international election observers to closely monitor the voting process. The electorate is awake, vigilant, and ready to protect the integrity of the ballot box.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:

Muhabi Lungu

NRPUP presidential campaign committee chairperson for Lusaka Province