MUNDUBILE MIGHT LOSE WITH 88,000 VOTES ONLY

OPINION: MUNDUBILE MIGHT LOSE WITH 88,000 VOTES ONLY. By Zambian Watch News Editor, Today we want to critically look at all the angles that are often overlooked by politicians, especially during campaign periods. Our focus is on Brian Mundubile, who is heading the Toonse Pamodzi Alliance, and whether he has the numbers to win the […]

OPINION: MUNDUBILE MIGHT LOSE WITH 88,000 VOTES ONLY.

By Zambian Watch News Editor,

Today we want to critically look at all the angles that are often overlooked by politicians, especially during campaign periods.

Our focus is on Brian Mundubile, who is heading the Toonse Pamodzi Alliance, and whether he has the numbers to win the General Election.

We will base our argument on registered voter figures and a set of assumptions for discussion purposes.

Here is the breakdown for easier understanding and to help us reach a logical conclusion together.

Southern, Western and North-Western provinces, which are regarded as President Hakainde Hichilema’s strongholds, have a combined 2,256,822 registered voters.

Assuming President Hichilema wins 99% of the vote in these provinces, he would receive approximately 2,234,254 votes, while Brian Mundubile would receive about 22,568 votes.

On the other hand, if Brian Mundubile dominates Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces with 99% of the vote, from a combined 1,852,620 registered voters, he would receive approximately 1,834,094 votes, while President Hichilema would receive about 18,526 votes.

Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces have a combined 2,727,335 registered voters. If both candidates split these provinces equally, each would receive approximately 1,363,668 votes.

Eastern Province has 1,129,444 registered voters. If Brian Mundubile receives 60% of the vote and President Hichilema 40%, Mundubile would receive approximately 677,666 votes, while Hichilema would receive about 451,778 votes

Central Province has 820,079 registered voters. Assuming Brian Mundubile receives 55% and President Hichilema 45%, Mundubile would get approximately 451,043 votes, while Hichilema would receive about 369,036 votes.

Based on these assumptions, the overall totals would be: Hakainde Hichilema: approximately 4,437,262 votes (about 50.5%).

Brian Mundubile: approximately 4,349,039 votes (about 49.5%)

This would give President Hakainde Hichilema a lead of roughly 88,000 votes.

Our understanding is that the key for both candidates is to significantly increase voter turnout and secure overwhelming victories in their respective strongholds while limiting losses in areas where they are weaker.

Given these assumptions, we understand Brian Mundubile needs to work in Southern western and Noryhwestern Provinces, to unseat President Hakainde Hichilema.

©️ Zambian Watch News.