Hichilema takes commanding early lead as parliamentary battle produces major upsets

Hichilema takes commanding early lead as parliamentary battle produces major upsets President Hakainde Hichilema has opened a commanding lead in the first presidential results reflected on the Electoral Commission of Zambia results platform, taking 69.9 percent of the valid votes…

Hichilema takes commanding early lead as parliamentary battle produces major upsets

President Hakainde Hichilema has opened a commanding lead in the first presidential results reflected on the Electoral Commission of Zambia results platform, taking 69.9 percent of the valid votes counted from the first five of the country’s 226 constituencies, while opposition leader Brian Mundubile trails with 29.7 percent.

The ECZ dashboard shows Hichilema with 37,060 votes against Mundubile’s 15,748, from 53,017 valid votes counted. Socialist Party candidate Fred M’membe follows with 71 votes, while Harry Kalaba and Kelvin Fube Bwalya have 56 and 52 votes respectively.

But the presidential numbers remain extremely early. Only five constituencies, representing about two percent of the country’s 226 constituencies, are reflected in the count. The dashboard itself warns that early declarations tend to cluster geographically and may therefore not provide a representative picture of the national vote. Its presidential projection only becomes available after 20 percent of constituencies have declared.

Away from the presidential tally, however, a much broader political picture is beginning to emerge from parliamentary results coming out of constituency tallying centres. Some of those declarations are still making their way through the ECZ verification process before appearing on the national dashboard, but they already point to a fiercely contested National Assembly race, with NRPUP making gains in several constituencies while UPND, Independents and other opposition parties pick up seats elsewhere.

In Kabwe Central, former Kabwe Mayor Patrick Chishala has secured his return to elected office, this time as Member of Parliament, after defeating incumbent UPND MP Chrizoster Halwindi Phiri. Results from the constituency put Chishala on 15,600 votes against Phiri’s 8,099, handing NRPUP one of its notable parliamentary gains outside the Copperbelt.

The Copperbelt is producing some of the opposition’s strongest results. Former Nkana MP Alexander Chiteme has reclaimed Nkana Constituency, defeating UPND candidate Francis Mukuka and booking his return to Parliament. Wusakile has gone to Pavyuma Kalobo, while Frank Ng’ambi has taken Chifubu, adding two more seats to the changing parliamentary landscape in the province.

The shift extends beyond Kitwe. Tilus Sichinga has taken Kabushi, while Michelle Phiri Kazala has emerged victorious in Chingola Central. Rosemary Chipoya has secured Nchanga, with Boris Chansa taking Chingola West. Taken together, the results show the Copperbelt becoming one of the major parliamentary battlegrounds of the election.

Muchinga Province is also sending new and returning faces to Parliament. Francis Kapyanga has secured Mpika North, while Kanungwe Chota Kanyanyamina has taken Lwitikila Constituency. In Nakonde, Lukas Simumba has prevailed in Mwenzo Constituency. The developing results have also brought defeat for incumbent Kanchibiya MP Sunday Chanda, although the complete result identifying his successor still requires confirmation.

In Malambo West, Patrick Mwale has emerged victorious on the NRPUP ticket, adding another constituency to the party’s growing parliamentary tally. The result is among those emerging from constituency-level counting while the national ECZ platform continues catching up with declarations being made around the country.

Lusaka Province is producing a more mixed picture. Danny Yenga has taken Kabwata Constituency, while former Cabinet minister Jean Kapata has secured Mandevu, marking her return to Parliament. Former Lusaka Mayor Chilando Chitangala is also among the candidates emerging from the parliamentary contests as constituency results continue to arrive.

The gains by NRPUP and other opposition candidates do not amount to a one-way parliamentary contest. UPND is collecting seats of its own across the country. Ross Kasikili has secured the newly created Roma Constituency, while Emmanuel Kasambo, popularly known as Lamba Bull, has taken Mpongwe West. In Chilanga South, UPND candidate Ngenda Situmbeko has also secured the parliamentary seat.

Southern Province continues to provide victories for the ruling party. UPND candidate Vincent Lilanda has won the Mazabuka parliamentary seat with 20,420 votes. The party also entered polling day with a number of parliamentary seats already secured after its candidates went through unopposed, including Trevor Mwiinde Sialunga in Choma South, Edgar Siakachoma in Kalomo South, Vumango Musumali in Zambezi West, Clement Andeleki in Kazungula North, Siakole Nchimunya in Sinazongwe and Jack Mwiimbu in Monze East.

There are surprises beyond the two largest political formations. Former minister Dr Chishimba Kambwili has captured Roan Constituency on the Citizens First ticket, putting the veteran politician back on course for Parliament. Independent candidate Iris Kaingu Kamwi has taken Mwandi, while Jeffrey Mulebwa has secured Kafulafuta. In Chongwe East, Independent Anita Kamanga has defeated former Health Minister Sylvia Masebo, adding another high-profile upset to the parliamentary contest.

Another result requiring careful distinction is Ndola Central, where Emmanuel Mulenga has emerged victorious on the Resolute Party ticket after defeating UPND’s Frank Tayali. Mulenga should therefore not be included among NRPUP’s parliamentary victories when calculating the opposition party’s seat tally.

The stream of constituency declarations also explains the apparent contradiction between what is happening around the country and what is visible on the ECZ dashboard. At the point captured by the latest dashboard, the National Assembly section showed only one constituency seat incorporated into the central system, even as winners were already being announced from numerous constituency tallying centres.

That gap does not necessarily mean the constituency results are missing. Election documents move through verification before they are incorporated into the national results management system, creating a period in which a candidate may already have prevailed at constituency level while the ECZ dashboard continues showing the seat as pending.

The distinction is particularly important at this early stage. Parliamentary elections are determined constituency by constituency, meaning a succession of local declarations can quickly provide a picture of how the National Assembly is taking shape. The presidential election, on the other hand, requires the national accumulation of votes from all constituencies before the true balance of the race becomes clear.

For Hichilema, the opening presidential figures are nevertheless emphatic. His 37,060 votes give him more than twice Mundubile’s 15,748 in the five constituencies currently reflected on the dashboard. But with 221 constituencies still outstanding in that snapshot, the overwhelming majority of the presidential vote remains outside the published national tally.

The parliamentary contest is already offering a different story. NRPUP has broken through in a number of constituencies, particularly on the Copperbelt, while UPND continues to secure seats of its own. Independents are also making their presence felt, and smaller opposition parties have begun putting MPs into the next National Assembly.

Zambia is therefore watching two election contests developing at different speeds. The first official presidential figures have given Hichilema a commanding 69.9 percent lead, but the parliamentary declarations are producing a far more fragmented map, with seats changing hands and several established political figures either returning to Parliament or being defeated.

With most presidential constituency results still to be incorporated into the national count and parliamentary declarations continuing across the country, neither picture is complete. What is already clear is that the race for State House and the battle for control of the National Assembly are not necessarily following the same political pattern.

Attention now turns to the next official ECZ update, expected at about 09:00 hours today, when more verified constituency results are expected to be added to the national tally. That update should provide a clearer indication of whether Hichilema’s commanding 69.9 percent opening lead is holding as results arrive from a wider geographical spread of the country, or whether the gap between him and Mundubile begins to narrow.

It should also bring the official dashboard closer to the picture already emerging from constituency tallying centres, where parliamentary winners have been declared faster than they are appearing on the central results platform.

For now, Hichilema leads the presidential race by a wide margin in the results officially reflected so far, while the parliamentary contest is producing a much more fragmented political map. The 09:00 hours ECZ update could give the first substantially broader indication of where Zambia’s 2026 election is heading.