ZNFU, Govt wheat production figures fail to tally

The Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) and […]

The Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) and the Government 2025/2026 forecast for wheat production fail to tally by over 400,000 metric tons.

According to the 2025/2026 crop forecast survey, the government estimated Zambia’s wheat production at 81,000 metric tonnes, down from 176,000 metric tonnes in the 2024/2025 farming season, representing a decline of more than 52%.

However, the sharp decline in the official forecast raises questions about whether the figures being used for planning accurately capture actual wheat production across the country.

The agricultural statistics are meant to guide everything from food security planning to import decisions and farmer support, but questions continue to arise over whether some crop figures accurately reflect what is happening on the ground.

The concern is particularly important according to some experts in the agric space because when official production estimates differ sharply from figures given by people directly involved in the sector.

Speaking in an interview with Zambian Business Times-ZBT, Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) Wheat Chairperson Blair McLeod revealed that wheat production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be between 480,000 and 500,000 metric tons.

McLeod said the estimate from the farming sector is therefore significantly higher than the 81,000 metric tons contained in the government’s crop forecast. “For 2026, it will be between 480 thousand and 500 thousand metric tons,” he said.

 The major difference between the two figures raises questions about how agricultural production is being measured and whether the official statistics are capturing production from all categories of farmers. McLeod said Zambia can increase wheat production substantially, but achieving higher output will require more investment.

Article by Philip Sinkala