Zambia : Zambia Election Choice: Continuity Under UPND Or Uncosted Change Under Tonse Alliance

The August 13 general election has taken shape as a choice between economic continuity and campaign uncertainty, with President Hakainde Hichilema‘s United Party for National Development (UPND) and the opposition Tonse Alliance offering starkly different pictures of the country’s direction.

On one side stands an incumbent anchoring his re-election bid on macroeconomic stabilisation, debt relief and agricultural recovery. On the other stands an opposition coalition whose campaign has increasingly turned toward security warnings and allegations rather than sustained policy debate.

When Hichilema took office, he inherited a defaulted economy with a negative 2.8 percent GDP contraction. The centrepiece of the turnaround since then has been a debt restructuring programme now saving Zambia US$1.9 billion every year, funds redirected into free education, public service recruitment and localised development rather than foreign Eurobond repayments.

That approach has been tested by the worst drought in living memory. While Tonse Alliance candidate Brian Mundubile pointed to rising food prices, the administration says it focused on building supply and resilience, delivering what officials describe as the highest maize harvest since independence. Inflation dropped from 6.7 percent in June to 6.4 percent in July, with mealie meal prices falling from K300 to K240 in several regions.

During a recent campaign stop, Hichilema addressed the criticism directly: “Yes, the basket is high because of the drought we inherited from the past, but we have stopped the bleeding. Economics is measured in real terms, not nominal slogans.”

The contrast in governance approach was highlighted during Mundubile’s recent appearance on the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme. Asked by journalist Dingindaba Jonah Buyoya to outline concrete plans for job creation and industrialisation, Mundubile responded with a broad pledge: “We will put women, youth, and the poor at the centre.”

The Tonse Alliance campaign has promised a K2,000 salary increase for civil servants, a higher Food Reserve Agency maize price for farmers, cancellation of water utility debts and free school uniforms and books nationwide. When pressed on how these commitments would be funded without triggering a new debt crisis, the campaign offered no detailed costing, despite the Alliance having published a manifesto.

By contrast, the UPND administration points to figures already reflected in the national payroll: 45,000 teachers and 20,000 health workers recruited, and the Constituency Development Fund expanded to move resources from Lusaka ministries directly into local communities for clinics, classrooms and feeder roads.

With the election days away, the UPND has focused its campaign on the Copperbelt, home to 1,296,446 registered voters, Zambia’s second-largest voting bloc. Hichilema won the province with 56.4 percent of the vote in 2021 and has since toured Mufulira, Lufwanyama, Kalulushi and Chambishi to expand that margin, pairing structural investment messaging in urban mining centres with agricultural support and Social Cash Transfer messaging in rural areas such as Lufwanyama and Masaiti.

Addressing a crowd in Lufwanyama, Hichilema linked the province’s development gains directly to his call for continuity: “Your show of gratitude towards free education, increased CDF, and employment opportunities is highly acknowledged. In order for these developments to continue trickling down, we call on you to protect this progress.”

As the campaign has intensified, Tonse Alliance leadership has raised a series of security allegations. Alliance secretary general Celestine Mukandila alleged, without presenting evidence to the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) or police, that foreign nationals from Tanzania, Malawi, Congo and Angola were crossing into border districts to vote using illegal documents. Alliance chairperson Binwell Mpundu separately alleged that three security personnel sent to Russia for VIP protection training had been abducted upon their return to Lusaka.

These claims have not been substantiated through ECZ or police channels. A related episode of political friction in Mongu was similarly leveraged by opposition figures to suggest broader instability, though isolated incidents have not translated into wider unrest; Western Province, like the rest of the country, remains largely peaceful.

Elections ultimately turn on two questions: whether a candidate understands the country’s challenges, and whether they present a realistic, funded plan to address them. On August 13, Zambians will decide between continuing the current debt restructuring, agricultural recovery and infrastructure programme under Hichilema, or a change in direction under an opposition coalition that has yet to detail how its commitments would be financed.

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