CCMG PRVT says it projected incumbent Hichilema win but same report reveals artificial vote increase at some totaling centres & more

Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) has revealed […]

Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) has revealed discrepancies between results recorded at selected polling stations and figures subsequently reflected at constituency tally centres in its independent assessment of Zambia’s 2026 Presidential Election.

In a CCMG Independent Assessment of the Accuracy of the Official Results for the 2026 Presidential Election statement made available to the Zambian Business Times – ZBT, the monitoring group said its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) exercise sampled 1,491 polling stations across all 10 provinces.

A check on the assessment by ZBT further showed that official national voter turnout stood at 57.23%, while the PRVT estimated turnout at 53.5%, with a margin of error of +/-0.6%.

CCMG said its sampling placed the upper limit for national turnout at 54.1%, raising questions about the gap between the independently projected figure and the official result.

“We identified 30 constituencies where official turnout exceeded the PRVT upper-limit projections by more than 10 percentage points,” they said.

Meanwhile, CCMG said the remaining 196 constituencies recorded an average turnout decline of 15% compared to the 2021 election, while the 30 flagged constituencies recorded an average increase of 6%.

“In Solwezi North, the official turnout was declared at a staggering 93.00% against an estimated PRVT projection of 46% showing a 43 percentage-point difference,” they said.

However, the CCMG assessment indicated that President Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) still secured an estimated 56.0% +/-1.7% under the PRVT methodology.

“The official results, meanwhile, placed President Hichilema at 60.5%, while National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP) candidate Brian Mundubile was officially credited with 37.9% against a PRVT estimate of 42.3% +/-1.7%,” they said.

CCMG indicated that they also examined results from 24 closely sampled polling stations across four fully audited constituencies to establish whether polling-station figures matched those recorded at tally centres.

“The assessment found that UPND results recorded at tally centres for 10 of the 24 polling stations did not match the results recorded from the sampled polling stations,” they said.

CCMG revealed that at Nameto Basic School-01 polling station in Kalomo Central, recorded 645 votes for UPND, but the tally-centre figure increased to 808 votes, representing an additional 163 votes.

“Similarly, at Fungulwe Primary School-01 in Lufwanyama West, the UPND polling-station result of 407 votes increased by 401 votes to 808 votes at the tally centre,” they said.

The monitoring group also reported concerns over the observation process, saying monitors and party agents were allegedly prevented from observing counting at Green Acres Basic School-01 and Mwata Secondary School-03 in Kalomo Central.

However, the assessment also found instances where polling-station and tally-centre results matched completely, with 13 of the 24 sampled stations recording no discrepancies.

“In Mongu Central, all eight audited polling stations, including Liyoyelo Community School-01 and Malengwa Primary School-01, reportedly recorded a zero-vote difference between polling-station declarations and constituency tally-centre figures,” said CCMG.

Article by Philip Sinkala, Philip is a Journalist & news analyst at the Zambian Business Times – ZBT