Data from the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZAMSTATS) […]

Data from the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZAMSTATS) April 2026 report revealed that Zambia’s trade surplus decreased to K0.8 billion in March 2026 from K5.7 billion in February, showing a K5 billion decline within a single month.

A further check by the Zambian Business Times—ZBT—in the report showed that exports fell by 8.1% from K27.2 billion to K25.0 billion, while imports surged by 12.3% from K21.5 billion to K24.2 billion. Meanwhile, economic expert Maxwell Kauseni has told Zambian Business Times-ZBT that the scale and speed of the decline are deeply concerning despite the country still recording a surplus.

“The decline is very significant; we are talking about a drop of K5 billion in just one month, and even though Zambia is still in a surplus, the speed and size of the drop is what raises concern,” said Kauseni.

He warned that the combination of falling exports and rising imports places pressure on foreign exchange reserves, the kwacha, and inflation levels across the economy.

 “The risk is quite serious because Zambia is earning less foreign exchange while spending more on imports, and this creates pressure on reserves, weakens the kwacha, and pushes up inflation, especially for fuel and food,” said D. Kauseni.

 Kauseni noted that while monthly fluctuations can occur due to seasonal or shipment timing factors, the current pattern suggests deeper structural weaknesses rather than a temporary anomaly.

 “When exports fall by 8.1% and imports rise by 12.3%, the combination suggests structural pressure, and if this continues, we could easily move from a surplus into a deficit,” said Kauseni.

 He further emphasized an urgent move in diversifying exports, strengthening local production, and promoting import substitution to prevent further external sector deterioration. “Zambia is currently earning less and spending more, and that gap, if not controlled, can quickly turn into economic pressure for everyone,” said Kauseni.

Article by Justine Phiri