PARI-Africa analysis claims, Hichilema may carry the day with 70-80% chance

PARI-Africa analysis claims, Hichilema may carry the day with 70-80% chance PRESIDENT Hakainde Hichilema is favoured to retain the presidency in Thursday’s general election, with the United Party for National Development (UPND) given a 70-80 percent chance of securing an outright first-round victory, according to a new analysis by the Public Affairs Research Institute in […]

PARI-Africa analysis claims, Hichilema may carry the day with 70-80% chance

PRESIDENT Hakainde Hichilema is favoured to retain the presidency in Thursday’s general election, with the United Party for National Development (UPND) given a 70-80 percent chance of securing an outright first-round victory, according to a new analysis by the Public Affairs Research Institute in Africa (PARI-Africa).

The analysis puts the likelihood of a second round at 15-25 percent, citing opposition fragmentation and organisational weaknesses as key factors giving the ruling party an advantage.

The pre-election briefing, titled Zambia’s 13 August General Election: Assessing the Route to the Presidency, is authored by Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability executive director Blessing Vava and Masosote Institute for Political Economy director Tamuka Chirimambowa.

The analysis, published on August 8, 2026, shows that President Hichilema is favoured to cross the mandatory 50 percent threshold, although it cautions that the reasoning behind the projected victory is not as straightforward as incumbent popularity.

“A first-round UPND victory is the most likely single outcome,” the briefing says.

According to the report, one of the UPND’s biggest advantages is its extensive participation at parliamentary, mayoral and ward levels, which it says gives the ruling party a stronger capacity to mobilise voters and protect votes on poll day.

The analysis highlights that the UPND has candidates in all 226 National Assembly constituencies, compared with 156 for the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), while it is contesting 115 of the 116 mayoral and council chairperson positions.

“Ballot access is the clearest measurable difference between the two campaigns. The UPND contested effectively every seat available. The NRPUP did not. The gap is not a matter of interpretation, it is recorded in the nomination returns, and it compounds downward – widest at ward level, where the machinery of election day actually sits,” the report reads in part.

At ward level, the UPND has fielded candidates countrywide, while the NRPUP is contesting fewer than two-thirds of the 1,858 wards.

The briefing states that the disparity is significant because candidates are central to placing polling agents and monitoring the counting and aggregation of results.

“The NRPUP’s decisive weakness is organisational rather than rhetorical,” it says.

The report identifies opposition fragmentation as the biggest factor working in favour of the incumbent, with 14 presidential candidates on the ballot dividing the anti-incumbent vote.

However, PARI-Africa cautions that the UPND’s projected victory should not be interpreted as evidence of overwhelming popularity, pointing to an underlying anti-incumbent sentiment among some voters.

Credit: Zambia Daily Mail