By Peter Sinkamba DISPELLING THE MYTH—THE UPND HAS NOT FIXED ZAMBIA’S DEBT, ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO RISE, AND EVEN WORSE============ The claims by the United Party for National Development (UPND) administration that they have “fixed” Zambia’s debt crisis are fundamentally false and misleading to the Zambian public. The debt as not been restructured. Debt restructuring is […]

By Peter Sinkamba

DISPELLING THE MYTH—THE UPND HAS NOT FIXED ZAMBIA’S DEBT, ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO RISE, AND EVEN WORSE
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The claims by the United Party for National Development (UPND) administration that they have “fixed” Zambia’s debt crisis are fundamentally false and misleading to the Zambian public. The debt as not been restructured. Debt restructuring is merely a rescheduling of payment timelines—it is not debt forgiveness, nor does it mean the debt has been erased.

In reality, official fiscal data demonstrates that Zambia’s total debt stock has significantly increased under the UPND administration between 2021 and 2026.

To correct the narrative, the public must look at the actual trajectory of both the direct government debt and state-guaranteed liabilities, which have ballooned in both United States Dollars (USD) and Zambian Kwacha (ZMW).

UPND inherited external public debt that stood at US$13.04 billion (approx. K210 billion), with an additional US$1.5 billion in sovereign guarantees (primarily for ZESCO).

In 2026 (currently), the total external public debt has climbed to over US$14.8 billion, while broader external liabilities (including non-guaranteed public sector energy and fuel arrears) have pushed total external vulnerability to over US$23.3 billion (approx. K440 billion).

With regard to domestic debt and government guarantees, in 2021, UPND inherited K193 billion (approx. US$11.9 billion, with domestic guarantees and fuel/agricultural arrears at roughly K42 billion. As at 2026 (currently), driven by aggressive domestic borrowing to finance budget deficits, domestic government securities alone have skyrocketed to over K252.8 billion (approx. US$13.3 billion), with the 2026 Annual Borrowing Plan adding an extra K21.6 billion in net domestic financing

To set the historical record straight, restructuring is a PF Initiative, not UPND Initiative. It is mischievous for the UPND administration to claim ownership of the debt restructuring process. The entire architecture for Zambia’s debt relief was designed, initiated, and advanced by the  PF administration before leaving office.

The foundation was laid by PF. In May 2020, the PF government officially hired the French financial firm Lazard Frères as independent financial advisors to spearhead the restructuring of Zambia’s foreign debt. Consequently, in February 2021, the PF administration formally applied for debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework.

When the UPND took office in August 2021, they did not build a new car; they simply sat in the driver’s seat of an already moving vehicle. They inherited an established legal framework, active international advisors, and an open application with the G20 Official Creditor Committee (OCC).

The UPND administration frequently claims credit where it did nothing, and blames others for its own faults.

For example, conclusion of the restructuring process was delayed and UPND blamed PF. Yet,  the multi-year stalemate that choked the Zambian economy between 2021 and 2024/2025 was largely driven by geopolitics and the UPND’s own handling of international diplomacy. The restructuring stalled for years due to a diplomatic tug-of-war between Western multilateral lenders (like the IMF/World Bank) and bilateral lenders—specifically China, Zambia’s largest single creditor.

UPND wanted to play a pro-west stooge and in process burnt its fingers thereby delaying the restructuring. It failed to properly manage the G20 rule of “Comparability of Treatment.” In late 2023, after the UPND rushed to announce an agreement with private Eurobond holders, official bilateral creditors (led by China and France) rejected the deal, forcing Zambia back to square one because the UPND had offered private western banks better terms than sovereign nations.

By over-aligning with Western institutions early on, the UPND alienated Eastern creditors, turning a technical financial negotiation into a prolonged geopolitical battlefield that delayed final signatures until 2024 and 2025.

Conclusion

The UPND has not “fixed” the debt. They have merely renegotiated the terms of a debt that is larger today than it was in 2021, using a framework designed by the PF, after causing unnecessary delays that paralyzed local business credit for years. The Zambian people deserve the truth: the burden remains, and the borrowing continues, and even worse. UPND leadership style has proven beyond reasonable doubt that mendacracy (government leadership by lies) has short legs. No wonder, UPND will be a one term government.