CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? Our Final Opinion before voting. Yes, Brian Mundubile can win,but he needs a major shift in votes. Here is the simplest way to understand the numbers. 2021: THE STARTING POINT In 2021, HH received about 2.85 million votes, while Edgar Lungu received about 1.87 million votes. HH […]

CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Our Final Opinion before voting.

Yes, Brian Mundubile can win,but he needs a major shift in votes.

Here is the simplest way to understand the numbers.

2021: THE STARTING POINT

In 2021, HH received about 2.85 million votes, while Edgar Lungu received about 1.87 million votes.

HH defeated Lungu by roughly 980,000 votes.

For this analysis, we assume Lungu’s 2021 votes become Mundubile’s votes in 2026.

2026: IF VOTERS BEHAVE THE SAME WAY

Zambia now has about 8.79 million registered voters.

If 80% of registered voters turn out and the 2021 voting pattern remains roughly the same:

• HH: 4.04 million votes
• Mundubile: 2.65 million votes
• Other candidates: 337,000 votes

HH would lead by approximately 1.46 million votes.

Mundubile would lose comfortably.

WHAT IF THERE IS A BIG SWING?

Now give Mundubile a very favourable scenario:

• 80% voter turnout
• Mundubile gains 10 percentage points in every province
• HH loses the same 10 percentage points
• Other opposition candidates receive no additional votes in this calculation

The projection becomes:

HH — 3.54 million votes (50.39%)

Mundubile — 3.49 million votes (49.61%)

The difference is only 54,383 votes.

So even with a major nationwide swing in Mundubile’s favour, HH would still narrowly cross the 50% threshold.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

This analysis does not mean Mundubile cannot win.

It means that a 10-percentage-point nationwide swing, by itself, is still not enough under these assumptions.

To win, Mundubile would need to:

• Gain significantly more votes from HH.
• Perform strongly in provinces where he was behind in 2021.
• Attract voters who supported other opposition candidates.
• Maintain strong turnout among his supporters.

THE BIG QUESTION

Can Mundubile move from approximately 2.65 million votes under the unchanged 2021 scenario to more than 3.5 million votes?

That is the real challenge.

A 10-point nationwide swing gets him extremely close, but according to this model, it still does not put him over the line.

FINAL VERDICT

CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN? — YES.

DOES THIS ANALYSIS SHOW THAT HE WILL WIN? — NO.

It shows that the election could become very close if there is a major movement of voters.

Ultimately, Mundubile must secure more than 50% of the valid presidential votes to win outright.

Elections are decided by votes—not predictions.

– Zambian Watch News.