Zambia : Democracy And The Incumbency Advantage: The Case Of Zambia

By Venus N Msyani

On August 13, 2026, Zambians lined up across the country to elect their next president. Election day itself unfolded calmly, with voting generally conducted efficiently. According to the preliminary findings of the EU Election Observer Mission, voters were offered a competitive choice.

However, the mission also noted that restrictions on campaigning and advantages associated with incumbency contributed to an uneven playing field, a challenge familiar in many democracies.

It was after the polls closed that events took a troubling turn. As vote counting and tabulation began, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) abruptly suspended the process nationwide for several hours without providing a clear explanation. The suspension occurred at a moment when President Hakainde Hichilema was reportedly trailing. During this period, the military took control of several tallying centers, officially to secure ballots. Some observers allege they were removed from these centers, raising concerns about transparency.

When counting resumed, Hichilema began to take the lead. Allegations soon surfaced claiming ballot box seals had been tampered with and figures altered to favor the incumbent. These claims, though not yet independently verified, fueled widespread suspicion and deepened public anxiety about the integrity of the process.

Amid these irregularities, opposition leader Brian Mundubile announced his intention to challenge the election results. Immediately afterward, his home was raided by the military in an operation authorities described as targeting an alleged militia group. The raid resulted in the death of former Minister of Transport Hon. Mutotwe Kafwaya. Mundubile and his running mate, Makebi Zulu, were subsequently charged with treason; a move that has prompted the United Nations to call for their release.

The situation escalated further on the final day of the petition window. Courts across the country were closed, preventing Mundubile from filing his challenge. This unprecedented action left many Zambians questioning whether their copper‑rich nation, long regarded as a beacon of democracy in Southern Africa, still holds that reputation.

On September 1, 2026, Hakainde Hichilema was inaugurated. Supporters argue that it is time for the country to move forward, noting that no democracy is perfect. The congratulatory messages Hichilema has received from governments, organizations, and international partners reinforce this view and suggest continued global recognition of Zambia’s leadership.

Others, however, struggle to accept the legitimacy of his presidency. They point to the military’s involvement in the electoral process and the nationwide closure of courts that prevented the election petition. To them, these events amount to military interference. They warn that allowing a president to assume office under such circumstances sets a dangerous precedent for future elections.

They emphasize that Zambia’s constitution must be respected for the country to remain a regional democratic leader. The nation’s election cycle is meant to be straightforward: campaigning, voting, declaration of results, resolution of disputes, and inauguration.

In 2026, they argue, this cycle was broken. Disputes remain unresolved, and the courts were closed at the critical moment when they were meant to address them. From this perspective, Hichilema’s presidency is viewed as constitutionally compromised. And unless Zambia confronts what happened in 2026, the precedent set today may haunt every election to come.

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