Economic Expert, Salwindi Notulu has cautioned against […]

Economic Expert, Salwindi Notulu has cautioned against interpreting the combined 0.4 percentage point contribution by North Western and Western provinces to Zambia’s June 2026 inflation as a sign of stronger economic performance, saying the figure largely reflects structural characteristics of the two provinces.

 According to official government data, North Western and Western provinces recorded the country’s lowest contributions to the overall annual inflation rate of 6.5% in June 2026, with each province contributing only 0.2 percentage points. Speaking in an interview with Zambian Business Times – ZBT, Notulu said inflation figures must be understood within the context of how the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is compiled rather than being viewed as a direct measure of economic prosperity.

populations and higher levels of urbanisation,” said Notulu. “The first thing that we need to take into consideration is the way in which our inflation is calculated because it is based on the Consumer Price Index, which uses a basket of goods that are typically consumed by households,” he said. Notulu warned that if the CPI basket is not updated consistently every five years, it may continue tracking products that are no longer commonly consumed, thereby reducing its ability to accurately reflect changing consumer spending patterns.

 Meanwhile, he explained that the relatively small populations of North Western and Western provinces mean fewer markets are sampled, resulting in lower volumes of consumer price data being captured compared to more urbanised provinces.

 “You expect that the number of points where data is collected for these two provinces is lower compared to areas with larger He further observed that the predominantly rural nature of both provinces means many households rely on subsistence farming, consuming food they produce themselves instead of purchasing it from commercial markets. “You expect that most households in these two provinces consume what they themselves produce and therefore purchase very little from the market,” said Notulu.

He added that the bumper 2025/2026 harvest, coupled with relatively lower local prices for commodities such as beef and chickens, has further reduced market purchases, while mining activities in North Western Province contribute to economic output but have limited influence on inflation because the CPI measures household consumption rather than industrial investment.

Article by Jusine Phiri