Who will lead Zambia 2026 to 2031?

Zambia goes to the polls on 13 […]

‎Zambia goes to the polls on 13 August 2026. The realistic background is the the erstwhile ruling party and main opposition party post 2021 elections – the Patriotic Front (PF) had not been given room to re-organise let along be on the ballot by the current ruling party – the United Party for National Development – UPND. ‎ ‎

Therefore, an opposition alliance which had always been in the making – the Tonse Allowance which managed to file under National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity – NRPUP, a special purpose vehicle that is carrying the hopes of all the opposition voices in Zambia. It has only had 3 months in full political operation and will need nothing short of a miracle to win.

‎ ‎Frankly speaking, the ruling UPND has not given room nor democratic space for any credible opposition to emerge, let along form an alternative opposition front. What we have today in Tonse Alliance is the best effort case, a scenario that has exposed the fact that the ruling UPND has been stifling dissent across the country. Dissent has simply not been given a vehicle for expression. ‎

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Whether it’s even possible to have free and fair elections in Zambia that can stand any international best practice test of democracy remains an academic proposition. There are so many democratic and constitutional violations such that a media institution that decides to pursue then end up being branded as an opposition front. ‎

 ‎The Zambian Business Times – ZBT review of top six priority recommendations by the European Union Observer Mission – EUOM on what measures the Zambian government ought to have put in place from 2021 to 2026 before the next general elections shows that little to Nothing has been done. ‎ ‎The same democratic hurdles and impediments that existed in 2021 still exist, some have even been enhanced making Zambia’s democratic credentials stagnant. Recommended reforms simply did not receive serious consideration and one would not be wrong to say that Zambia’s democratic development supported by enacted laws and regulations still remain stack at the 2021 stage. ‎

 ‎As the poll date approaches, it’s now a comfirmed two horse race. A race between 64 years old incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema and Opposition front runner and 54 years old Brian Mundubile. ‎ ‎Campaigns have been held with the incumbent Hichilema enjoying the privilege of campaigning without a restricted schedule, while his main rival – Opposition’s Mundubile remains constrained by an Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) sanctioned campaign schedule. ‎

‎What is so sinister is that the opposition’s Mundubile is not allowed to go back to provinces he has campaigned from while the incubent Hichilema has un-restricted ability to criss cross the country. ‎ ‎For the Opposition to win, it will take a national revolt vote and astitute political machinations by the opposition.

 As for incubent Hichilema, he has to ensure that he re-produces the extremely high voter turn out rates from his stronghold provinces of Southern & Western Province. ‎ ‎North-Western somehow welcomed the opposition to campaign abait some disturbances and restrictions, and it remains to be seen if Hichilema will manage to attain the extremely high voter turn out rates from this region. ‎

‎Whatever the case, Zambia and Zambians have remained highly unpredictable, have delivered change of governments or regimes at times when it’s almost impossible to predict. But whatever the outcome, one thing that is coming out clearly is that politicians who fail to attend to the majority needs face an existential crisis and risk being voted out of office.

Article by Phillip Sinkala