By Augustine Mukoka TANZANIA FORMULA: Five Million Votes? A Dream, Political Ambition Or Preparing The Public For The Unthinkable? The UPND has set itself an extraordinary target for next month’s general election: five million votes. Its supporters speak of the figure as though it is already guaranteed. But before slogans replace reason, it is worth […]

By Augustine Mukoka

TANZANIA FORMULA: Five Million Votes? A Dream, Political Ambition Or Preparing The Public For The Unthinkable?

The UPND has set itself an extraordinary target for next month’s general election: five million votes.

Its supporters speak of the figure as though it is already guaranteed. But before slogans replace reason, it is worth examining whether such a claim is grounded in Zambia’s electoral history.

Let’s be honest. Nangu chiloto—even if it were a dream—how realistic is it?

Without unprecedented circumstances, such a figure appears more like political fantasy than electoral probability.

Some may even wonder whether repeatedly promoting such a number is intended to condition the public to accept an outcome that would otherwise raise legitimate questions of rigging.

Zambia’s electoral record tells a very different story.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia’s register now stands at approximately 8.79 million voters.

Yet never in our democratic history has every registered voter turned out to cast a ballot.

The highest voter turnout has never exceeded 75% since multiparty democracy was re-introduced in 1991.

Here are the numbers

* 1991: 45%
* 1996: 58%
* 2001: 68%
* 2006: 71%
* 2008 (Presidential by-election): 45%
* 2011: 54%
* 2015 (Presidential by-election): 32% — the lowest since 1991.
* 2016: 57%
* 2021: 66% — the third-highest turnout in Zambia’s democratic history.

Even if Zambians were somehow to better the record, it will most likely not exceed 75 percent turnout in 2026. And that would translate into about 6.59 million voters casting ballots from the current register of roughly 8.79 million.

This, therefore, raises a straightforward question.

Is it realistic to expect one candidate to receive five million votes out of approximately 6.6 million votes cast?

Such a result would require an overwhelming level of support that Zambia’s electoral history has never witnessed.

That is why the repeated talk of five million votes deserves scrutiny rather than blind acceptance.

Democracy survives not because one side wins, but because the losers accept the outcome as credible.

Credibility begins long before polling day. It is built through transparency, fairness and public confidence in the electoral process.

Any attempt to manipulate the vote—whether through ballot stuffing, alteration of Gen 20 forms, abuse of state institutions or any other unlawful practice—would not merely disadvantage political opponents. It would undermine the legitimacy of the government that emerges and weaken Zambia’s democratic institutions.

Power is temporary. Democracy is permanent.

Every political party should remember that governments come and go, but the country’s stability depends on citizens believing that their vote counts and that the declared result reflects the will expressed at the ballot box.

Respect the people’s choice. Protect the integrity of the vote.

Let the ballot—not manipulation—determine who governs Zambia.

As for the claim that President Hakainde Hichilema will secure five million votes, it reminds one of an old saying: dreaming that you are watering lunsonga, only to wake up and discover that the bed is soaked in something with the unmistakable pungent smell of ammonia gas. When you know, you know.

Some dreams are simply too good to survive the morning.