SIMPLE ANALYSIS: THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY

By Gregory Chifire… SIMPLE ANALYSIS: THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY UPND has won five out of the ten Provinces: 1. Lusaka2. Southern3. Western4. Northwestern5. Central NRPUP has also won five Provinces: 1. Copperbelt2. Luapula3. Northern4. Muchinga5. Eastern But the real story is in the pattern. In the five provinces won by UPND, NRPUP did not […]

By Gregory Chifire…

SIMPLE ANALYSIS: THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY

UPND has won five out of the ten Provinces:

1. Lusaka
2. Southern
3. Western
4. Northwestern
5. Central

NRPUP has also won five Provinces:

1. Copperbelt
2. Luapula
3. Northern
4. Muchinga
5. Eastern

But the real story is in the pattern.

In the five provinces won by UPND, NRPUP did not win a single seat in Southern or Western. By contrast, in every province won by NRPUP, UPND still managed to pick up seats, on average, about three per province.

There is another important distinction: UPND’s victories in its strongholds came with significantly wider margins, while NRPUP’s victories in its strongholds were generally achieved by much narrower margins.

The voting patterns also reveal a clear demographic divide. UPND appeared to have stronger appeal among the more educated and student populations, while NRPUP resonated more strongly with economically disadvantaged and less formally educated communities.

You don’t need complicated mathematics to understand this.

Without even putting the figures on the table, the pattern itself settles the debate.

This is no rocket science. It is plain electoral reality. We can now wait for ECZ official results in peace.