Mundubile wins across North and East, but huge Southern margins keep Hichilema ahead

47 Views LUSAKA — The latest Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) results are continuing to show a striking contrast in the presidential race: Brian Mundubile is winning a larger number of constituencies across the North and East, but President Hakainde Hichilema is building a substantial national advantage through exceptionally large victories in Southern Province. The […]

47 Views

Brian Mundubile

President Hakainde Hichilema

LUSAKA — The latest Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) results are continuing to show a striking contrast in the presidential race: Brian Mundubile is winning a larger number of constituencies across the North and East, but President Hakainde Hichilema is building a substantial national advantage through exceptionally large victories in Southern Province.

The ECZ announced the latest results at about 23:00 hours CAT, bringing the number of consolidated constituencies to 49 out of 226.

The overall tally now stands at:

Hakainde Hichilema — 438,708 votes

Brian Mundubile — 351,281 votes

Hichilema’s lead — 87,427 votes

The detailed results illustrate why the race cannot be judged simply by counting the number of constituencies won by either candidate.

Mundubile continues to record strong victories across Luapula, Northern, Muchinga and Eastern provinces.

For example, in Chifunabuli North in Luapula Province, Mundubile secured 11,950 votes against Hichilema’s 4,108, giving him a margin of 7,842 votes.

In Kasama Central, Northern Province, Mundubile polled 20,689 against Hichilema’s 8,179 — a margin of 12,510 votes.

In Kaumbwe, Eastern Province, Mundubile received 9,517 votes against Hichilema’s 2,701, giving him a margin of 6,816.

Mundubile also won Pambashe in Luapula with 9,155 votes against Hichilema’s 3,467, a margin of 5,688 votes.

In Chipata North, Eastern Province, Mundubile polled 16,345 against Hichilema’s 7,172, giving him a margin of 9,173.

He also recorded strong victories in Chipili, Luapula, where he received 9,379 votes against Hichilema’s 5,411, and Chinsali Central in Muchinga, where he secured 15,606 votes against Hichilema’s 3,986.

Other Mundubile victories include Senga Hill in Northern Province, where he polled 14,163 against Hichilema’s 8,341, and Mwenzo in Muchinga Province, where he received 7,604 votes against Hichilema’s 4,947.

The pattern demonstrates Mundubile’s ability to accumulate significant numbers of votes across several constituencies.

But the arithmetic changes dramatically when the results move into Southern Province.

In Sinazongwe, Hichilema recorded 29,098 votes against Mundubile’s 382 — a staggering margin of 28,716 votes.

The difference is even more dramatic in Chikankata, where Hichilema received 38,739 votes while Mundubile managed 475.

That represents a margin of 38,264 votes in favour of Hichilema.

This illustrates the central feature of the emerging presidential contest: several sizeable Mundubile victories can be offset by a single overwhelming Hichilema victory in Southern Province.

For instance, Mundubile’s victories in Chifunabuli North, Kasama Central, Kaumbwe and Pambashe collectively give him a substantial advantage. However, the margin Hichilema recorded in Chikankata alone is larger than the combined margins from those four constituencies.

The same phenomenon is visible in other Southern constituencies, where Hichilema is recording margins running into tens of thousands of votes.

The latest results therefore reinforce the importance of both the number of constituencies won and, critically, the size of the margins in those constituencies.

Mundubile’s strength is becoming increasingly evident in the North and East, where he is accumulating votes across a broad geographical area.

Hichilema, meanwhile, is demonstrating much deeper support in Southern Province, where the size of his victories is substantially increasing his national tally.

There are also constituencies where the race is much tighter. In Mafinga North in Muchinga Province, for example, Mundubile leads Hichilema by only 309 votes, with 7,489 against 7,180.

The latest figures therefore present a presidential contest characterised by two very different electoral strategies: Mundubile’s broad geographical competitiveness and Hichilema’s ability to convert his strongest provinces into very large vote margins.

With only 49 of 226 constituencies currently consolidated, however, neither candidate’s position can be regarded as decisive.

A total of 177 constituencies remain outside the consolidated presidential tally.

The continuing count will therefore be crucial, particularly as results from the major urban centres and other competitive provinces are incorporated into the national total.

For now, Hichilema remains ahead nationally with 438,708 votes to Mundubile’s 351,281, but the latest constituency results show that Mundubile continues to command significant support across the northern and eastern parts of Zambia.

The final outcome will ultimately depend on how the remaining constituencies translate into both votes won and margins accumulated.