“BM IS WINNING CONSTITUENCIES, HH IS WINNING THE MATHEMATICS”- Bwezani

“BM IS WINNING CONSTITUENCIES, HH IS WINNING THE MATHEMATICS” THE STORY INSIDE THE FIRST 27 I can already see some people telling me, “Bwezani, stick to football.” Bane, I did this same election mathematics in 2021. I love numbers, patterns and projections. Actually, this is exactly what I do with football , you don’t analyse […]

“BM IS WINNING CONSTITUENCIES, HH IS WINNING THE MATHEMATICS”

THE STORY INSIDE THE FIRST 27

I can already see some people telling me, “Bwezani, stick to football.”

Bane, I did this same election mathematics in 2021. I love numbers, patterns and projections. Actually, this is exactly what I do with football , you don’t analyse a league by merely saying who won on Saturday. You study points, margins, remaining games, home and away performance and possible outcomes.

So this is not about declaring a winner. It is an early projection and an indication of what the first 27 constituencies are telling us

And the mathematics is interesting.

Take just four constituencies from Southern Province:

Dundumwezi: HH 22,043 — BM 46
Kalomo South: HH 23,802 — BM 83
Magoye East: HH 19,738 — BM 148
Monze East: HH 22,523 — BM 429

Combined:

HH — 88,106
BM — 706

The margin from those four alone is 87,400.

Now compare the other side of the equation.

BM wins
Mwansabombwe 11,812–4,456,
Kantanshi 12,547–6,945,
Kankoyo 9,332–4,684,
Kalungwishi 9,519–5,013,
Chipangali West 7,862–3,353 and
Malambo East 9,074–6,191,

among others.

Those are important victories.

But this is where presidential-election mathematics becomes different from counting parliamentary seats.

A constituency won by one vote and another won by 20,000 votes are both one constituency on the map ,  but they are completely different things in the presidential tally.

If BM wins several constituencies by margins of 2,000, 3,000 or 5,000 while HH loses there but continues collecting substantial votes, BM is adding to his total while HH remains in touching distance.

Then HH goes somewhere else and produces a margin above 20,000 in one constituency.

The calculator changes very quickly.

There are other numbers worth watching.

In Mbala Central, BM wins 7,930–6,629 ,  a margin of only 1,301. In Saise, BM wins 5,793–4,921 , only 872 separates them.

Compare losing 7,930–6,629 with losing 23,802–83.

That difference is potentially more important to the presidential race than simply colouring constituencies red or blue on a map.

There are also interesting early indicators outside the traditional bases. Chadiza East goes HH 6,574–4,505, Chadiza West is extremely close at 8,027–7,411, Chongwe East gives HH 17,114–8,807, while Chisamba is 6,568–3,180.

Those are the places I will be watching closely because elections are ultimately decided not only by how brutally you dominate your strongholds, but also by how well you survive in your opponent’s territory and what you extract from competitive areas.

But let us be disciplined about this.

These are 27 constituencies out of 226. They are an indication, not a national conclusion. We still need the big urban constituencies, more provincial results, turnout patterns and the remaining voting blocs before any serious final projection can be attempted.

For now, I am interested in the direction of the mathematics.

As the Chewa say:

“Pang’ono pang’ono ndi mtolo.”

Little by little, the load is built

But election mathematics adds another lesson: while one candidate may be adding the load pang’ono pang’ono, another can suddenly arrive with a very heavy sack.

So allow Bwezani the calculator for a while.

I did it in 2021, I do it every week with football, and I will do it again here.

Not to tell you who has won , but to understand what the numbers may be beginning to tell us.

But I wont force you, dinr read if you dont want to, i know one who understands mathematics will read!!!

By Bwezani with Zambian Football