Questions are mounting over the feasibility of […]

Questions are mounting over the feasibility of Zambia’s national mining milestones after official data confirmed that copper production contracted by 4.27% during the first quarter of 2026. This initial quarterly setback places early pressure on the government’s ambitious 1 million metric tonne annual production target, a benchmark the country narrowly missed last year.

According to consolidated data confirmed by Minister of Mines and Minerals Development Paul Kabuswe, total copper output for the first quarter of 2026 dropped to approximately 208,992 metric tonnes, down from the 218,308 metric tonnes recorded during the corresponding period in 2025.

This quarterly decline follows an active but incomplete performance in 2025. Official figures show that while Zambia’s 2025 copper output rose by 8% to 890,346 tonnes, up from 825,513 tonnes in 2024, it ultimately fell short of the 1 million-tonne threshold by more than 109,000 tonnes. Despite the slow start to the current year, Kabuswe said the contraction was largely concentrated in the artisanal and small-scale processing sectors.

 In contrast, large-scale industrial mining operations actually demonstrated resilience.

 “Copper production from largescale mines increased from 195,418.89 metric tonnes recorded in the first quarter of 2025 to 198,930.17 metric tonnes during the corresponding period in 2026,” Kabuswe stated, noting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% for the segment. The Minister remains optimistic that increased investor confidence and robust international mineral prices will keep the country on track to surpass the 1 million-tonne mark by the end of December.

However, industry analysts caution that the current annualized run rate is lagging behind the target trajectory. Kabuswe emphasized that the remaining quarters of 2026 will hinge heavily on critical operational variables.

 “These include ore grade stability, the execution of major capital investments, mining fleet availability, processing plant feed reliability, and the minimization of planned or unplanned care and maintenance disruptions across the Copperbelt and North-Western provinces.”

Article by Tyndale Muchiya